A New Interpretation of Drake-Equation

Zsolt Hetesi and Zsolt Regály

Some aspects of modern astrobiology that play an essential role in the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) are critically investigated. Specifically the factors in the Drake equation are considered and proposals for modifications made. It is argued there may be a more civilized way of life than a communicative one. The impact on the equation of the probability of the existence of communicative civilizations in our Galaxy is investigated considering likelihood-theory and the possible channel of communication. The issues that arise are new elements in the probability equation (i.e. deviations from the traditional Drake equation factors). It is concluded that while the existence of Extraterrestrial Intelligence may be high the probability of communication maybe less than the results of former estimations.

Keywords: SETI, Drake-equation, emergence of life, likelihood-theory, philosophy of science